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Summary

International Relations Class 18

## CONTINUATION OF INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS (5:10 PM)

- After 2003, the secret nuclear plan for Iran came into the news.
- The USA then tried to convince India to end relations with Iran.
- The US asked India to vote against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency  (IAEA) platform, follow American sanctions on Iran, and impose sanctions on Iran.
- India voted against Iran in the IAEA, but India did not impose sanctions on Iran and held that India would only follow UN sanctions and not of any single country.
- India reduced Iranian oil imports and started conducting the imports in domestic currency.

## Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA):

- It was signed in 2015 between Iran, P5 countries, and Germany.
- It was also called the Iran Nuclear Deal.
- As per the deal, Iran accepted certain restrictions over its nuclear program and got relaxation from secondary sanctions.
- Iran agreed to eliminate its stock of medium-enriched uranium.
- Iran agreed to reduce its low-enriched uranium by 98% and **gas centrifuges**by 2/3rd.
- Iran agreed to give access to IAEA inspectors into its nuclear sites.
- Iran wanted to get relief from the economic sanctions.

## Reasons why the USA went for the deal:

- The rise of many terror outfits like ISIS in the region.
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  | **USA's role in the inception of ISIS:**  - The US’s key role in oustering **Saddam Hussein** was instrumental in creating a power vacuum within the Middle Eastern region, thus setting the stage for the rise of ISIS amidst the devastation and chaos of Iraq post-war. - This, further complicated in the **Arab Spring** in 2011 with several autocratic regimes in the **Sahel region** toppled, enabled ISIS to find crucial support among young disillusioned youth who were out of work and disdainful of the West. - After the fall of the **Gaddafi regime in Libya,** the region was left without a strong leader, hence many insurgent groups emerged in the region that also had members of disbanded militias. |
- The Western world saw many citizens go to Iraq-Syria to fight ISIS; India saw very few such migrations.
- Many of those who did not go, became **lone-wolf** attackers in their respective countries.
- America did not want to send its army to the region again due to public opinion against the war.
- The USA later entered into a deal with Iran and joined hands with Iran against ISIS.

## IMPACT ON IRAN-INDIA RELATIONS (5:40 PM)

- After the removal of sanctions, the pressure on India-Iran relations was reduced.
- India and Iran concluded in 2016 an MOU to develop the **Chabahar Port.**
- The U.S. in 2018 under **Donald Trump** 2018 pulled out of JCPOA and announced that it would now maximize pressure on Iran by reinforcing secondary sanctions.
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  | **Trump gave reasons:**  - I. The JCPOA was anyways temporary. - II. The deal does not stop Iran from engaging in proxy warfare. - III. Iran violated the related IAEA guidelines. |
- The USA gave 8 months time to India & China who were major importers of Iranian oil to reduce their oil imports to zero.
- By May 2019, India zeroed out its Iranian oil imports.
- Between 2015 and May 2019, Indian oil imports from Iran stood at 11% of Indian total oil imports.
- During this period, India's total trade with Iran stood at $17 billion.
- Between 2003 and 2015, India did not accept secondary sanctions from the USA and during the Trump administration, India succumbed to the US pressure.
- The India-Iran rupee-rial mechanism was also suspended.
- Iran paid for the insurance of oil imports, which is usually paid for by the importer.
- Iranian oil is also of good quality, and more suitable for Indian refineries.
- India hence got a good quality oil at competitive prices.
- Also, The USA abandoned Obama's policy of **Co-op** and started the policy of putting maximum pressure on Iran.

## Pieces of evidence of maximum pressure by the USA:

- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran was identified as a terrorist organization.
- It was the first time another country's army had been designated as a terrorist organization.
- America killed Qasim Solemani, the founding commander of the **Quds**Force in 2020 through a drone attack, and also took public responsibility.
- Qasim was instrumental in American action against ISIS.

## Iranian response:

- Iran made its proxy Houthis attack Saudi oil facilities, which were under the security protection of the USA.
- As the USA did not intervene, Saudi knew that it could no longer rely on the USA for its security.
- Iran shot down American drones over the **Strait of Hormuz.**
- Iran threatened to shut done the Strait of Hormuz.
- ![](https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-HI145_hormuz_ZG_20190424084445.jpg)
- Trump's strategy did not bear much result.
- When **Joe Biden** came to power, he indicated his willingness to re-enter JCPOA.
- However, by this time the moderate government in Iran was replaced by a more rightist/conservative government.
- Iran and the USA have not been able to re-negotiate rejoining JCPOA.
- JCPOA is dead for all practical purposes.

## INDIA-IRAN PRESENT RELATIONS (6:10 PM):

- After India joined secondary sanctions on Iran and zeroed out its oil imports, Iran conducted a cost-benefit analysis of its relations with New Delhi.
- It realized India needs Iran more than Iran needs India.
- Iran is critical for New Delhi's connectivity to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Europe as well.
- After no Indian oil imports, Iran did not have much to lose in its relations with India.
- Thus, there was a deterioration in the bilateral ties.
- They have made efforts to once again revive cooperation after 2021.
- There have been high-level visits between the two countries.
- PM Modi said that India -Iran relations have "strong historical & civilizational connections including strong people-people contact".

## Challenges in India-Iran relations:

## I. American sanctions on Iran impede oil imports.

- In 2018,  11%  of Indian oil imports came from Iran.
- Oil import diversification is important for India because:
- I. India is an emerging economy with 80% of its oil requirements met through imports.
- Recent fluctuations in oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Being a large il-importer, India remains susceptible to such price fluctuations.
- Higher oil prices during the **First Gulf War in 1990**were the main reason behind the only **Balance of Payments** crisis that India faced in 1991.
- Indian crude oil imports from the USA, Iraq, Saudi Arabia & UAE roughly account for 63% of the value of total crude oil imports.
- Indian bilateral trade with Iran now stands at around $2 billion, when the Rupee-Rial mechanism for oil imports is suspended.

## II. Kashmir Issue:

- Iran adopts a pro-Pakistan stance on it

## III. China factor:

- Due to American secondary sanctions, the Chinese share in Iranian oil exports has risen from 25% to 45 %.
- The Iranian economy is hence dependent on China.
- China has become the largest trade partner of Iran.
- China & Iran have concluded a deal whereby China has promised $400 billion in investments in Iran over the next 25 years.
- The largest beneficiary of the American sanctions has been China, as China circumvents American sanctions.
- Indian plan to develop Chabahar port was to counter the Chinese development of **Gwadar port in Balochistan** province.
- ![](https://www.ias4sure.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Untitled-picture-1.png)

## IV. India joining I2U2:

- The rest three countries have bad relations with Iran.

## V. Domestic situation in Iran:

- Severe economic crisis due to depreciating currency Rial.
- The orthodox government and deployment of Moral Police pressurises women to cover their faces in public.
- Iranian women continue to resist.

## POINTS OF CONVERGENCE (6:40 PM):

## I.Afghanistan:

- In the past, India and Iran have collaborated over Afghanistan.
- Iran presents an alternative land route to Afghanistan.
- Both countries want an inclusive government representing all spectrum of the Afghan society and peace in Afghanistan.

## II. Iranian Nuclear Deal:

- It is dead for all practical purposes.
- This means the sanctions on Iran will continue.
- India can explore a stand similar to the one it adopted concerning Western sanctions on Russia.
- This could open huge potential for trade in oil and other goods.

## III. Ongoing rebalancing in West Asia:

- **Evidences:**
- I. **Abraham Accords** through which UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have normalized their ties with Israel.
- II. Iran and Saudi Arabia reopening their embassies in each other's countries after 7 years, after Chinese mediation.
- This creates an opportunity for India to engage in mutually beneficial partnerships with all the major countries of the region.

## Way Forward:

- India is a leading power with global power ambitions and cannot succumb to the pressure of a third country to pursue its relations with other nations.
- So India should adopt an **autonomous need-based foreign policy** with respect to Iran.
- India should convey its strategic concerns with Iran to the USA and how American secondary sanctions are in fact benefitting China in the region.
- India should consider restarting oil imports from Iran.
- **INSTC** corridor though operationalized in parts has not been able to achieve its full potential because of sanctions on Iran.
- So India should explore giving a boost to the INSTC to reap resultant trade benefits.
- Iranian SCO membership creates more avenues for multilateral engagement with Iran.
- **Iran-Oman-India gas pipeline:**
- Iran and Oman signed a deal in 2022 to develop two gas pipelines and an oil field along their maritime borders.
- ![](https://www.onestopbrokers.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/SAGE-gas-pipeline-map.jpg)
- If the deal is realized, there would be potential for the pipeline to be extended to India.
- It would help to overcome the loss of the failed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.

## IRAN-SAUDI ARABIA PEACE DEAL (7:10 PM):

- The deal has been brokered by China.
- The embassies were closed after protests that followed the Saudi execution of a Shia cleric in 2016.
- Iran agreed not to sponsor Houthi attacks on oil facilities in southern Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi promised to tone down **Iran International**, a Farsi news channel that is critical of the Iranian regime.
- The deal is said to be a low-cost (because both countries wanted normal relations), high-opportunity deal (all such deals in the region were brokered by the USA).
- Saudi Arabia entered the deal under its **Vision 2030**for which it wishes to focus on economic development and technology.
- Iran entered the deal to overcome its economic problems and domestic issues.
- Iran is also hoping for Chinese investments, including the $20 billion that remains frozen in China due to sanctions.
- China brokered the deal because it seeks to expand its influence in West Asia.
- **American Reaction:**
- It expects good results and peace from the deal.
- **Indian Reaction:**
- India has not expressed its opinion as such but it hopes that if the deal brings peace to the region, Indian interests in the region will get smooth.
- India is also expected to gain if Chinese influence increases in the region as India is seen as a balancing power to China.

## NUCLEAR TREATIES (7:30 PM):

## Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):

- It was adopted in 1968 and it entered into force in 1970.
- In an NPT review conference in 1995, the treaty was extended indefinitely.
- It is referred to as a cornerstone of the global nuclear order.

## Aims of the treaty:

- Nuclear non-proliferation.
- Promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
- Global nuclear disarmament; is a weak aim as no timeline or process is mentioned for this.

## Working of the treaty:

- It classifies countries as **Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)** and **Non-Nuclear Weapon States( NNWS).**
- Those countries that have tested their nuclear weapons by 1st January 1967 are mentioned in NWS.
- As a matter of coincidence, all the P5 countries (The USA, The UK, France, Russia & China) are classified as NWS.
- All rest countries are classified as NNWS.
- If NNWS agrees to not develop nuclear weapons, NWS will share peaceful nuclear technology.

## There were issues with this provision:

- Nuclear technology is a dual-use technology- can be used both for energy and weapons.
- Iran and North Korea used this provision to develop nuclear weapon technology.
- North Korea came out of the treaty later
- The International Atomic Energy Agency  (IAEA) was made a watchdog for the treaty.
- IAEA sends its inspectors to check if countries are developing nuclear weapons.
- China has also shared nuclear power technology with Pakistan.

## Significance of the treaty:

- It is the only binding treaty that binds nuclear weapon states to disarmament.
- The treaty has been indefinitely extended after 1995.
- It has 191 signatory countries, so it has a near-universal membership and general global consensus.
- Only India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan have never joined the NPT (North Korea announced its withdrawal in 2003).
- The treaty is largely successful in its aim to stop horizontal proliferation.
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  | **I. Vertical Proliferation:**  - Increasing the number and sophistication of nuclear weapons. **II. Horizontal Proliferation:**  - NNWS getting access to nuclear weapons. |
- In more than 50 years since its enforcement, only four countries could develop nuclear weapons- India, Pakistan, Israel & North Korea.
- In comparison, within 2 decades of America acquiring nuclear weapons, four other states acquired them.

## Indian reasons for not joining:

- The treaty is discriminatory- divides nations into NWS and NNWS.
- The treaty only checks horizontal proliferation.
- India believed in the concept of the **Nth nation problem.**
- This concept says that till the time even a single country possesses nuclear weapons, others will be motivated to develop nuclear weapons.
- Indian goal is universal, time-bound, verifiable, and irreversible global nuclear disarmament.

## Indian chances for joining NPT:

- Being a nuclear power, India can join the NPT only if the NPT's charter is amended.
- That might encourage other nations to develop nuclear weapons as well.
- India can join if it surrenders/dismantles its nuclear arsenal.
- The option is not practical as India has a considerable threat from two nuclear-armed neighbours.

## The topic for the next class is the rest of global nuclear treaties.